University of Pa
Prediction of Consumer Tendencies by Authorities and Novices
J. Jeff Armstrong
University or college of Pennsylvania, [email protected] upenn. edu
Postprint version. Released in Log of Client Research, Volume level 18, Issue 2, September 1991, pages 251-256. Publisher URL: http://www.jstor.org/browse/00935301?config=jstor This paper is submitted at ScholarlyCommons. http://repository.upenn.edu/marketing_papers/46 For more information, please contact [email protected] upenn. edu.
Reprinted from Record of Buyer Research, 18 (September), 1991, 251-256, printed by the University of Chicago Press, В© 1991 by Journal of Consumer Analysis, Inc. Most rights arranged. Prediction of Consumer Patterns by Professionals and Beginners J. Scott Armstrong1 Happen to be those who are knowledgeable about scientific exploration on customer behavior better able to make predictions about phenomena in this field? Predictions were made for a hundred and five hypotheses from 20 scientific studies picked from Log of Buyer Research. A total of 1, 736 predictions had been obtained from 16 academics, 12 practitioners, and 43 high school students: The professionals were appropriate on 54.99. 2 percent of the ideas, the students about 56. 6 percent, and the academics on 51. a few percent. No group performed better than possibility.
This article presents a study on the predictive benefit of scientific knowledge of client behavior. It can this simply by obtaining forecasts from individuals that should be well acquainted with this kind of knowledge, and comparing their very own predictions with those by people who are unlikely to have this kind of knowledge. 2 The 1st section of this article presents the hypotheses. An outline of the conjecture study is then presented, accompanied by results and limitations. Finally, suggestions are supplied for bettering the predictive value of research about consumer behavior. Hypotheses Consumer behavior was expected to be considered a field by which one could demonstrate gains in predictive quality as. the result of scientific exploration. The Log of Customer Research's (JCR's) style sheet asks for hypostatic contributions that " give themselves to generalization. " The Journal's articles will be among the most widely cited of all those released in business and management analysis. According to the Social Science Quotation Index Log Citation Report for 1987, JCR positioned first among the list of 51 organization journals while measured by the citation " impact element. " Which means that researchers draw upon the research posted in JCR and that conclusions from JCR are disseminated among academics. The Record is also highly regarded by faculty (Luke and Doke 1987). In addition , the field of consumer behavior displays a solid emphasis on empirical testing of hypotheses.
Scott Armstrong is professor of marketing, Wharton School, University or college of Pa, Philadelphia, PA. 19104. He thanks the subsequent people for assistance: Kim Rossini and Stuart Neuman aided in writing descriptions from the studies; Martha Lightwood duplicate edited the survey supplies; Wende Gladfelter and Kenneth Weissman implemented some of the surveys; Mitzi Vorachek arranged intended for data collection at Strath Haven Senior high school; Larry Bortner assisted in coding the information; and Kenneth Weissman assisted in the examination of the results and commented on various drafts. Valuable comments had been received by many people, among them had been Dennis A. Ahlburg, David A. Bessler, Russell W. Belk, Stuart Bretschneider, A. S. C. Ehrenberg. George H. Haines, Jr., Steven J. Hoch, Morris Holbrook, Raymond Hubbard, Shelby Quest, Jacob Jacoby, David L. Kendall, Jerome B. Kernan, Joel Kupfersmid, Donald Lehmann, John G. C. Very little, Richard Oliver, Brian Ratchford, William Ross, John 3rd there’s r. Rossiter, Terence A. Shimp, and 3 anonymous reviewers. The gain in predictive validity may be viewed as a measure of scientific achievement. I actually administered a questionnaire to a convenience sample of teachers at the Advertising Science...